All is well in the poker world for me. I think I still lack the simple fundamentals of the math game and think I will be rereading Theory of Poker as I continue to work through NL Theory. I decided this after reading this, http://cts687.livejournal.com/2006/04/23/ . Crazy thing is this dude is a fucking baller now and he was grinding the same stakes as me a little over a year ago. He didn't get where he is by slacking. This dude was in college studying Math and Econ and on the side Poker. To really be the best you can be at something you have to give everything you have got and then some. Anyways here are the hands.
Villian is 49/12/.65 I decided to C-bet figuring if suth shoved I would call with 2 overs. Instead he pitches it and Mancini snap calls. Turn is good and bad as I pick up more outs unless mancini has made a flush. I check behind and decide to see what the river brings. Bang! Nut straight and he leads strong. WTF? Can I call?
Hand 1: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1280147
Villain is 81/0/.77 when he weak led I felt he had a drawing hand and in hindsight I should have raised stronger and made him pay to hit. The turn is just fucked because it completes the straight and is an over. He leads almost pot, WTF?
Hand 2: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1280153
Villain is 87/62/2.75 over 16 hands though, he was a maniac and went bust 10 hands after this one when he shoved with top pair no draw on a monotone board against a made flush. Hindsight i think I maybe should have gambled here and shoved it as there is no telling what hand he takes this line with and the likeliness of him having a better hand then mine is slim. I just hated that he called my 4 bet cold after min raising. WTF?
Hand 3: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1280157
First blog post
10 years ago
4 comments:
Hand 1: Snap call on flop indicates a drawing hand usually. Problem is, he could just as easily be on QT and not worried about the flush since you checked behind on the turn. but then again this could very well be a flush that was looking to c/r the turn. I think the flush draw is more likely and I'm folding here.
On a flop like this that hits so many flush and straight draws and the turn completes both, I think it is most likely -EV to call any bet.
Hand:2 He sure is being aggro for such passive stats....think I fold here. Seems like a set or KQ to me.
Hand 3: Stats usless with only 16 hands, but if he seems maniac like his stats suggest, then I push here......see my response to Hand 3 in Dodykens blog today. Again, it may be bad advice, but it's something I'm trying out. If he seems anything other than maniac, I have to fold and wait for a better spot.
Hand 1: Not terribly confident about my suggestions, take it for what it's worth. I question the c-bet on a board this wet that missed you, even though one of the other guys is short. I c-bet a ton, and so I'm looking for spots not to c-bet, and I think this is one of them. Even if suth shoves, you likely don't have the equity to call (assuming mancini folds as planned). As played, I think a fold is best on the river, but not by much. I could see a queen making this play since you checked the turn, although I do think it's more likely he hit his flush.
Hand 2: Agree with luckysob on this one. Against someone more solid, I'd probably call and re-evaluate the river, expecting hands that beat me to c/r the turn, but judging on his stats, this guy is not too tricky, and this hand is quickly getting too expensive for TP. Wait for a better spot.
Hand 3: Without a read, I would just fold. If I thought he was really as nuts as his stats suggested, I would prefer calling down to pushing (I'll have to read luckysob's comment in dodgyken's blog). Against a nutcase, I prefer to let them keep firing into me because I believe I'm going to be in better shape calling than I am when they call in a WA/WB situation (not sure this is exactly WA/WB due to the board's wetness, but a lot that completes villain's draws gives you a redraw).
Hand 1: I'd call it. I'd be shown a flush. I'd curse my rotten luck.
Hand 2: Fold. One pair on that board is not good.
Hand 3: I like Marc's point about calling down against a nutcase. I find it hard to reason why he'd bet so strongly with a J. If I'd seen him make moves and bluff before I call this down (maybe shoving on turn). If he hasn't got out of line then maybe a fold is the low variance play.
1) His aggression factor is 0.65? Unless his river aggression is out of line with that, this is a flush and you're gonna lose if you call. Also, like Marc says, I don't like the c-bet.
2) My left nut says he has JT or KQ. I don't see how you win this hand if you call. Sometimes you fold and you just don't know--this aint one of those times.
3) To me, this reeks of a nut flush draw. If he's that maniacal, I push.
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