This is a hand which I posted on Leggo and feel like aftert some thought and analysis I can clearly fold. Lets take a closer look.
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
| Hero (UTG) | ($230.60) | ||
| CO | ($99.90) | ||
| BTN | ($150.70) | ||
| SB | ($107.55) | ||
| BB | ($43.15) |
Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is UTG

Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 3 folds
Preflop is definately debatable and in retrospect is a fold. My main focus as of late hass been targeting fish when they are in the blinds but due to table dynamics this is a fold.
Flop:
($7.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO calls $4
Flop:
($7.50, 2 players)Hero bets $4, CO calls $4
Villain had been calling me a fair amount preflop IP and not folding to cbets. I have been trying to cbet smaller in general and this is a great spot to bet close to 1/2 pot. His range at this point is Qx, Jx, KT, T9,AT and 22-TT plus just random floats.
Turn:
($15.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO raises to $38, $26 to Hero ($211.60)?
Turn:
($15.50, 2 players)Hero bets $12, CO raises to $38, $26 to Hero ($211.60)?
Though I had c/f two+ turns to villain I think this is an easy VB when I can excpect a large portion of his range to continue. The true problem is when he makes the raise. His range is grossly narrowed along with mine. In his eyes I can have QQ,JJ,QJ,KJ,T9,AT,KQ and a random bluff thus when he raises I am doubtful it is for anything but value. The fact that my range is so strong when I DB this board makes his raising range that much stronger. The simple fact is if he raises my DB I am a dead duck because I doubt he ever does this with naked trips. Even when I give him all AJ combos and one KQ our equity is not nice.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,452 games 0.032 secs 45,375 games/sec
Board: Jc Jd Qh Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.937% 19.70% 01.24% 286 18.00 { Ts9h }
Hand 1: 79.063% 77.82% 01.24% 1130 18.00 { AJs-ATs, KcQc, KJs, QJs, AJo-ATo, KJo, QJo }
The funny thing is villain actually raised AT and tank called vs my shove which goes a long way towards telling you just how scary this board is. At the time I went level 0, I has straight AI. When I go through this hand looking at not only villains range but my percieved range and how they merge together the turn is a fold. I would love to take credit for going CTS and actually turning T9 into a bluff but that wasnt the case, this time.

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